Trends in Changes of Hydrological and Hydrochemical Conditions of The Aral Sea Until 2030
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55640/eijmrms-06-05-10Keywords:
Aral Sea, environmental crisis, inflow reductionAbstract
Since 1961, as a result of intensive and irreversible withdrawal of river flow, primarily for irrigation, the inflow of water into the Aral Sea has sharply decreased, leading to a disruption of its hydrological and hydrochemical regime. Evaporation significantly exceeds water inflow, causing a steady drop in sea level, desertification of the surrounding areas, and degradation of the natural environment of the Aral Sea region. New continental ecosystems are forming on the exposed seabed, aeolian processes are intensifying, and deflation contributes to the spread of salts, worsening soil conditions. The environmental crisis is further complicated by the current geopolitical and socio-economic situation, necessitating new scientifically grounded approaches to minimize its consequences. Anthropogenic factors account for up to 95% of the inflow reduction, and by 2022, the sea’s surface area had decreased to 14,000 km², its volume to 44 km³, and salinity had reached 123‰. Forecasts indicate a continued drop in sea level and the transformation of the Aral into a chloride brine lake with salt deposition, which could open up opportunities for salt extraction or balneological use.
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