Geopolitical Analysis Of The Iran-Israel Conflict And Its Implications For Iranian Air Transport

Abstract

This research examines the geopolitical analysis of the Iranian-Israeli conflict and its direct and indirect repercussions on the Iranian air transport sector, one of the sectors most affected by regional tensions and international sanctions.

The research is based on the premise that the ongoing escalation in this conflict is not limited to military or political dimensions, but extends to civilian infrastructure, particularly air transport, which is affected by regional security, economic pressures, and cyber-attacks.

The historical and strategic context of the hostile relations between the two sides is analyzed, drawing on Arab and international sources, to highlight how the tools of this conflict have evolved, from Iranian support for resistance movements to mutual threats via cyberspace.

The study also examined the impact of Western sanctions on Iranian airlines, including restrictions on access to spare parts and modern aircraft, and their effect on the safety of the air fleet.

It documented changes in air routes, particularly after high-profile incidents such as the downing of a Ukrainian airliner in 2020, which led to a reassessment of Iranian airspace by major international airlines. The cyber dimensions of the conflict were also analyzed, as cyberattacks targeted Iranian airports and air navigation systems.

The study concluded that Iranian air transport is facing a multidimensional crisis resulting from this regional conflict, and that overcoming this crisis requires technical and diplomatic solutions and alternative international partnerships. The study concluded with recommendations, most notably the need to neutralize the aviation sector from political conflicts, develop a defensive cyber infrastructure, and enhance cooperation with international aviation organizations.